3 ideas and a question: Evaluating risk

Two ways we misperceive risk and how to move forward anyway

Image credit: Stefano Zocca on Unsplash

Idea 1

Psychologically, we tend to evaluate active risk (the risk of taking action) as riskier than passive risk (the risk of taking no action). It feels more dangerous to cause something potentially bad to happen than to allow something bad to happen through inaction.

— It’s a conspiracy

Idea 2

When the forecast for rain increases from a 20% to a 30% probability, we’re more likely to pack an umbrella than when the forecast goes from a 40% to a 30% chance. Upward changes in estimates tend to feel more likely to happen than downward changes.

— What’s the likelihood of THAT happening?

Idea 3

When we avoid trying because of fear, we avoid growth. There’s an alternative: Reshape our perception of what’s possible, and of its risks, by breaking down our journey into tiny experiments.

— Turning big fears into tiny experiments

Question

What difficult conversation could you turn into a series of tiny experiments?

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